his actions exposed weaknesses in putin's authority and set off speculation on what a post—putin russia would be like. my guest is the dissident russian journalist and writer mikhail zygar, who has spent years studying the kremlin. can he work out what is going on in putin's inner circle and what it means for russia's future? mikhail zygar, welcome to hardtalk. hello. thank you for having me. right, you have spent many years interviewing dozens of kremlin insiders, so why do you believe

that the failed mutiny has substantially weakened putin's authority? oh, you know, that's the moment when everyone understands that the emperor is naked, because for many years he was considered to be a very experienced politician who knows what he's doing, who has everything under his control. he was using all members of his inner circle to counterweight each other, and he was creating that very difficult system of balance of power. and now it's obvious that he could not control his once puppet, who was very close to putin for many years, who was in charge of very delicate issues, he had his most important troll factory in russia, and he became known because of that. yeah. then he organised his private

military campaign, private army, wagner group. and then he was... his mission was to become a counterweight for russian minister of defence, sergei shoigu. yeah. and then he became the real politician. so he has posed this huge threat to putin, which you say has made him weaker, but it depends how you define weaker, doesn't it? because the russian analyst and academic nikolai petrov has said that the vulnerability exposed in the russian state may actually make putin more dangerous in that repressions in russia will become even more intensive. that's possible because... possible, but not likely, you think? you know, we... so far, putin's reaction is a bit weird because we were expecting wage... ..a new wave of purges, repressions against prigozhin supporters, and maybe some...some reaction designed to distract attention from that, prigozhin, because putin obviously lost his face, so he had to escalate to...

but is he weaker or is he not? and could that vulnerability, as nikolai petrov suggests, actually make him more dangerous? do you think that's true or not? it sounds like you disagree. i don't think that he can be more dangerous. what more dangerous could happen after the beginning of the war? he has already made the biggest mistake of his life, and the.... he has created the biggest catastrophe for russia, that happened last february. i don't believe that he is capable to use the nuclear weapon. that's...that�*s not possible. but in terms of the russian bureaucracy, in terms of politics in russia, he is weaker because now the inner circle, the elite understands that they have to prepare for russia

after putin. all right. that's the main thing. just sticking with yevgeny prigozhin and wagner group for a moment, the belarusian defence ministry says that the wagner group is now actually inside belarus and it's even helping to train some belarusian defence units. do they still pose a threat to putin, the wagner group? because they've clearly not been dismantled. i don't think that they pose the threat because we know that until recently, or maybe even now, yevgeny prigozhin is still in russia. you know that for sure? i know from my...from several sources that he was in st petersburg for several weeks. but is he still there? because... i'm not sure, right now... 0k. ..while we're speaking, he might have been somewhere else, but he didn't leave russia after the mutiny. we know that he met

putin in the kremlin. we know that he spent several weeks in saint petersburg, that is his hometown and putin's hometown. so he was... there is no criminal investigation against him. he is very comfortable... and why is that? ..staying in russia. why is that? is it because putin doesn't deem him a threat or because putin is too weak... no, no, no. ..to try and move against him? no, no. putin is... he's weaker, but he's not that weak. right. he's still. . . he's still the only person running russia. but prigozhin, obviously, did not challenge putin himself. he did not want to topple the president. he wanted to become number one... number two, i'm sorry. he challenged shoigu, generals, army, but he was... ..he still was loyal to president putin. so there is no reason for putin to destroy him. well, you say there's no reason for putin to destroy him, so then how would you explain the fact that the russian state media has been trying to discredit yevgeny prigozhin?

i'm hearing mixed messages from you. i mean, they showed images during a raid by the security services of his villa, with all the expensive interiors, the gold bars, the guns, the drugs, the money. yeah, that's. .. 0k. why are they doing that? he has challenged the system, not president putin. so he... ..he won't be murdered. and he... and president putin himself knows the long history of their relationship. he's still thankful. that's about putin's psychology. he's still thankful for all the effort prigozhin has taken on the front line. but he has challenged the system, so he's going to be eliminated as the part of the system. all right, mikhailzygar, i'm going to test your intelligence that you have about the kremlin insiders, because we've heard a few reports in the media, quoting proekt, which is a russian investigative website, saying that yevgeny prigozhin has actually been treated for stomach

cancer, and one wagner employee has suggested that he mounted his day of rage against putin because...implying that he had nothing to lose. can you confirm whether yevgeny prigozhin does have cancer or not? i have never heard that from any of my sources. you've not read it on proekt? no, no, no, no, itrust them. that's their information. they are the only source i've heard that from. but none of my sources could confirm that. are you still in touch with your sources? because, i mean, you've been out of russia now for...since february last year. 0h, definitely i'm in touch with my sources, and a lot of people are still ready to communicate, are still ready to talk, because for many top russian bureaucrats, it's very important to feel that they are decent people, they are not accomplices, at least they consider themselves not to be accomplices to the regime.

so they are talking much more willingly than they used to speak before the beginning of the war. and what have they all been saying to you about the mutiny by prigozhin and the wagner group? they say that that's the signal that the system is starting to collapse, and probably.... one of my very informal sources told me that before the mutiny his estimate was that the regime could go on like that for two years, but after the mutiny his estimate is one year, maximum. so you have said it would be prudent to start preparing for what comes after putin. so is his fall from power imminent? you say it's going to happen within a year? it... citing your sources. according to my sources, it's like, yeah, the system has started to gradually collapse, and the next year probably would be crucial because that's the year of the presidential election.

so are you saying he will be gone within a year, or...? no, with russia, you should not... you know, we are...we are not magicians. we cannot swear that we know the day when he is going to be gone. but we know that the war would continue till he's gone. all right. in 2015, you wrote a book called all the kremlin�*s men, and you interviewed dozens of people at the kremlin, and you said then that there is no long—term strategy to find a successor for putin. why has vladimir putin not groomed or named a successor very openly? 0h, he's really afraid of becoming a lame duck. he thinks that once he has chosen, he has picked someone, he's not the real leader. so, and for many years, that was a taboo within russian elite, even to think of russia after putin. and that taboo is no longer there. all right.

now they have started trying to create the strategy because it's obvious that his days are numbered. kremlin watchers are beginning to name names. would you name names as who might be the most likely successor to vladimir putin? you know, that's...that's a very...that�*s a very poor game. is it? yeah. lots of people are doing it, though. you're going to be left behind as a kremlinologist if you don't say. you know, i don't... i'm not afraid of being left behind as a kremlinologist, with all of my books and all of my knowledge. i know that, for example, as for now we have yury kovalchuk as the most influential person in russia. he is not the potential successor, but he is...he could be one of the kingmakers. he's the person who owns the presidential administration. his influence is really great. a number of so—called siloviki, the people in charge of the security apparatus, they are...they are going to be the kingmakers. but obvious figures like prime minister mishustin,

or deputy head of presidential administration kiriyenko, or mayor of moscow, sobyanin. they are the obvious contenders, and i don't think that they have a lot of chances. i think that's going to be somebody new. i'll give you a name. a former cia agent, unnamed, says that nikolai patrushev, head of the russian security council, is the favourite. and he says, "i believe we will see him replace putin "sooner rather than later. " you know, in 2015, i've written a book called all the kremlin�*s men. and the last chapter of that book was about nikolai patrushev. so probably seven years ago, patrushev was the most influential person in kremlin, but that's... so the cia's information or that particular agent is wrong. so... i'm not sure that that cia

information is that widespread. all right. john sullivan, who was us ambassador to moscow until late last year, has said that an alternative to putin could be worse. do you agree with that view? ithink... everything what's happening is worse. so it couldn't be worse than something we have now. we know that he has to go. he cannot stay forever. so... so we shall have some kind of alternative. do you agree it will be somebody worse than he? because it's not... no. no, no, no. you don't think so? no. you know... there could be the civil war in russia. yes. that's one of the scenarios. but, you know, that doesn't mean that we need to have putin forever, because that could not happen. yeah. well, i tell you, because a lot of people are looking at this and agree with whatjohn sullivan is saying, the former head of the uk secret

intelligence service, alex younger, even in october last year, before prigozhin�*s action, says that putin is in danger of being outflanked by the very political constituency he created — the chauvinistic, nationalistic, arguably fascistic right wing. so that's sort of bolstering the view that putin could be replaced by somebody more extreme... no, no, no, no, no. you disagree with alex younger? you know, you're quoting something that was written last year when prigozhin was on rise. prigozhin was the symbol of that ultra—nationalistic wing. and, actually, he discredited it. so now that ultra—nationalistic wing is not that important because, you know, russian political process does not exist. it does not... it's not important who is popular, because we can'tjudge who is more — prigozhin is more popular or navalny.

well, 0k. but, i mean, john sullivan... it's all about bureaucracy. john sullivan, the former us ambassador, who was speaking after prigozhin�*s actions, has said putin could be replaced by somebody worse. but you are saying you don't know or you don't think so? which is it? i don't think so. 0k, fine. all right. you've written a new book, war and punishment, which very much looks at how nationalism has been used in russia as a kind of myth to expand the russian empire, as you describe it. but i want to ask you whether you feel that places like chechnya, dagestan, which are part of the russian federation, chechnya obviously governed by ramzan kadyrov, very close to putin, a hard man, how do you see that developing? because people believe that russia can't move forward without addressing its imperial past and present.

yeah, absolutely. ithink... i was writing the book not about chechnya or dagestan... it's about ukraine. yeah. yeah, i was trying to address the issue of russian imperial myths and the fact that the idea of russian greatness, the traditional imperialist historical narrative, is poison. and it's a great threat to russia itself, to russian people, as well as to all nations neighbouring russia. and we should not forget about it, we should admit it, and we should try to eradicate that myth of russian exceptionalism. does it mean that russia should stop being an empire? yes, absolutely. chechnya and dagestan, or any other regions of russia, are in... right now... ..they do not look like parts of russian federation. it's obvious that de facto chechnya is a separate state. that's like in north korea within russia. it's a democratic north korea.

let me put this to you. casey michel from the human rights foundation says, "even if putin fails to wrest back ukraine, "the kremlin will continue ruling over colonial holdings "like chechnya, tatarstan. "russia's history is one of almost ceaseless "expansion and colonisation." do you agree with that, or do you think that the war in ukraine has now put paid to those kinds of ambitions? you know, it's important, it's important to say... ..to speak about several things as they are. yes, it's important to admit the fact that russia is a colonial empire.

and no russian historian has ever admitted that, because traditionally russians say that, no, no, no, colonial empire is british empire, because colonies are somewhere across the ocean and siberia is the integral part of mother russia. and we should stop and we should end up with all those illusions. yes, russia is a colonial empire, and everything what happened with siberia back in 16th, 17th century looks like colonisation of north america, for example. right. so you say, in war and punishment, "we failed to spot just how deadly "the very idea of russia's great empire was." and you say that many russians and writers and historians are complicit in facilitating the war in ukraine. so you are a russian writer. do you accept culpability yourself, personally? absolutely. i start my book with that — that this book is a confession and i bear responsibility. and i should deal with it,

as all russian people. we should not say don't touch pushkin or don't touch tolstoy! we should deal with all those problems. we should find all the mistakes and all the crimes in our history and now in russian culture. we should deal with it, as british historians have done a greatjob revealing the crimes of british empire and of british culture, for example. when kipling wrote his infamous poem about white man's burden, that was many years ago. but it's still very important to address that issue and to admit the fact that, yes, british culture was imperialist, russian culture was imperialist. you are saying people should speak out against this, and then, when you do, what happens to you? vladimir kara—murza,

opposition activist, jailed for 25 years for opposing the invasion of ukraine, accused of treason for spreading supposedly false information. yeah, and alexei navalny, a lot of people, my dear friend, a great russian poet, also... so you're advocating futile efforts at speaking up or at great personal risk to yourself, like alexei navalny, in a penal colony for 11 years? yeah, but russia is not going to depart from this earth, and the population of russia is there. and they are going to live... they are going to outlive putin. and we need to heal russia and the population of russia from that disease. with all respect to you, mikhail zygar, you can do it from the luxury of exile. you left russia three days after the invasion of ukraine. that's why i have an opportunity to write this book. yes, but does it have any impact? you're writing columns in the new york times and in german newspapers.

i'm going to publish... do you think it has an impact? i'm going to publish this book for the russian population. definitely. i'm not working... would they be able to read it? yeah, there is internet. there is internet, a lot of digital platforms, applications, definitely. russia is a very technologically advanced country and youtube is still not blocked. but even with different platforms being blocked, a lot of people are reading, a lot of people are trying to find the real information. and, you know, most people are terrified. they are not supporting the war. they are not supporting putin. they are just... they know... they are so scared. they are just lying under their beds. so where is this opposition going to come from? that's why i put it to you that what you're advocating, like the letter that you wrote, signed by a few people straight

after the war, you signed that letter, made it public, and then you left the country. not a few people — thousands of people. sorry, thousands of people. and then you left the country. do you blame me for leaving the country? no, i don't. did you feel your life was in danger? you know, i cannot go back to russia because my life is going to be in danger once i'm there. just today, i've... ..i�*ve received news about my trial against me because i'm labelled as a foreign agent and there are accusations against me in the russian court. soi... i cannot go there, because i am not a politician. i'm not like alexei navalny or vladimir kara—murza or thousands of political activists. i think that i need to write books about russian history, russian culture. i think that education is very important. we have never had a proper history of peoples of russia. we have only had history of russian state. history of russia through the eyes of emperors. we need to start from scratch.

we need to confess that russia, russian empire, was a criminal state. so how far do people in russia accept this myth, as you put it, that's been peddled by the kremlin? it's very hard. a lot of people believe, a lot of people believe, even... a lot of people would be very disappointed by my book and some of them are going to be insulted. but that's a pain we should take. we have to go through all those remorses. we have to admit that something was wrong. were you very upset when your ukrainian friend, nadia, whose home you had stayed in for a while, doing a lot of your writing, also stopped talking to you because...saying to you, you are an imperialist because you are russian. i understand perfectly well the emotions of ukrainians, and i understand those ukrainians who write on twitter that russian authors should shut up and should be quiet. i know their feelings.

i won't ever argue with them. i think that we owe a lot to ukrainian culture and ukrainian writers, ukrainian historians, ukrainian poets should be glorified and celebrated all around the world. but i've got myjob to be done with the russian people and with russian history and like healing all the wounds of russian history is my task, not theirs. mikhail zygar, thank you very much indeed for coming on hardtalk. thank you.

hello. for many of us, tuesday was decidedly cool for a july day thanks to a lot of clouds and some outbreaks of rain. that was the scene for a weather watcher in belfast. there were plenty of places that didn't get above 14—15 degrees. was a little bit warmer in the southeast of england, but a world away from the heat that continues to affect southern parts of europe, that extreme heat set to go on. this is the dividing line, the jet stream, the winds high up in the atmosphere, keeping that heat away from our shores, keeping us in some relatively cool air with areas of low pressure and frontal systems moving through. that frontal system there, that was tuesday's rain—maker. it is moving away eastwards. high pressure trying to build from the west, but there'll still be some showers on wednesday. early cloud and patchy rain in eastern england, that tending to clear, then some spells of sunshine but a scattering of showers. wales and the south west of england, not seeing too many showers. northern scotland likely to stay quite cloudy and breezy throughout the day.

and temperatures for lerwick only up to 12 degrees, further south, 2a the high in london. through wednesday night, the showers will tend to fade, we'll see clear skies overhead, one or two mist or fog patches. and with those clear skies, it is going to be actually quite a cool night for the time of year, widely in the towns and cities, 8—12 degrees. but there will be places in the countryside that gets a little chillier than that. so a cool start to thursday morning, but a bright start with spells of sunshine. again, some showers will develop. the odd heavy one is possible. still some quite large areas of cloud across northern parts of scotland and temperatures north to south between 15—23 degrees. that covers it for most of us. now for friday, a lot of dry weather around to start off, but we will tend to see more clouds spilling in from the west. and some outbreaks of rain are likely to move into parts of northern ireland and northwest

scotland, drierfurther south and east, albeit with the chance for the odd shower and temperatures of 14—21 degrees. but as we head into the weekend, we see another frontal system attached to this area of low pressure. that will be working in from the west, bringing outbreaks of rain for many of us. and on the southern flank of that system, some quite strong winds. so, into the weekend some rain at times, albeit with some drier interludes. turning windy down towards the south and remaining fairly cool.

live from london, live from london, this is bbc news. this is bbc news. is this the new normal? millions across the globe continue to face red alerts as the record heat wave blazes on. a us soldier crosses from south to north korea illegally after apparentlyjoining a tour group at the border. more details emerging. children in some parts of england are having to wait more than a year in pain for dental treatment, according to data seen by the bbc. hello, i'm sally bundock.